Congress Nears Resolution on Government Shutdown as Predictive Markets Signal Confidence
The U.S. government shutdown crisis is reaching a pivotal moment, with Congress expected to finalize a resolution imminently. Predictive markets reflect strong optimism, with Polymarket showing a 96% probability of reopening between November 12-15, corroborated by Kalshi's contracts. The Senate advanced key legislation in a 60-40 vote, funding federal agencies and reversing furloughs—yet unresolved ACA subsidies loom as a contentious flashpoint.
Seven Democrats crossed party lines to support the bill, which guarantees back pay for federal workers and restores food aid programs. The omission of Affordable Care Act subsidies has ignited fierce debate, with Republicans facing internal criticism over the lack of a clear strategy. House Speaker Mike Johnson pledged further negotiations but offered no concrete timeline, leaving millions in premium uncertainty.
